FNUS71 KRNK 161126
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CLAYTOR LAKE STATE PARK...VA DCR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 AM EST WED FEB 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED MIXING AROUND
THE HIGH TO PROVIDE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW HUMIDITIES UNDER
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE SHOULD RECOVER SOME TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ASIDE FROM SOME PERIODIC CLOUDINESS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN LOOK SLIM UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.

TIME (EST)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............44     38     32     26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................47     55     54     54
RH..................40     32     34     36
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 8   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     10
CWR.................0      0      0      0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............22     20     22     23     27     33
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................53     49     46     43     41     39
RH..................37     45     54     63     70     74
20 FT WIND..........S 4    S 2    S 1    S 2    S 2    S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      10

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............41     35     39     44     44     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................39     43     52     57     61     64
RH..................77     63     49     44     38     34
20 FT WIND..........S 1    S 1    SW 2   SW 5   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     15     15
CWR.................10     10     10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...FORREST ATWOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110216.CLAYT.01/RNK