FNUS73 KUNR 161615
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE FIRE DEFENSE ZONE SLASH PILE RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
915 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 5 AM THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS THEN
CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. THE
ATMOSPHERE ALSO WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 56.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 TO 4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING 20 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 23 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 TO 1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 32 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR LATE IN THE EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...BRETT BLUMHART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110216.NEWCA.01/UNR