FNUS74 KLZK 171416 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR WALKER MTN 1B...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 816 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON FEBRUARY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY BUT WILL BE TIED SOMEWHAT TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND TODAY. EXPECT OVER THE BURN AREA THAT CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH TERRAIN IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. AS SUCH...SUN BREAKS WILL AID IN MIXING AND EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE TRICKY. THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT A MIXING HEIGHT OF AROUND 3000 FT MSL...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE THIS WILL BE REALIZED DUE TO THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES. I THINK AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BURN AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 25 TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 2400 FT MSL. TIME (CST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............69 70 71 71 71 70 RH..............56 55 54 54 57 60 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.10 10 9 8 8 7 EYE LVL WND GST.15 18 20 20 13 13 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.29 29 30 30 29 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............68 65 62 61 60 59 RH..............65 73 79 84 89 91 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...TIM NUTLEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110217.WALKE.03/LZK