FNUS73 KPAH 171355 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD BOTTOMS UNITS 12 13...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 755 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT FOR ANY APPRECIABLE TIME TODAY. EVEN A FULLY SHELTERED AREA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT THE FINE FUELS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BURNING. GOOD RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL POSE LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE MANAGABLE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITIES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL BY 3 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 43 TO 52 MPH BY IGNITION AND REMAINING IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 64 66 68 69 69 69 68 RH..............65 60 58 55 53 53 53 55 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 35 35 35 30 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.52 52 49 48 46 45 44 43 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 41 TO 47 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............66 63 61 60 58 57 RH..............59 65 72 75 80 83 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 12 S 12 SW 10 SW 8 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2400 2400 1800 1900 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 41 SW 47 S 31 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 2 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64. RH..................MIN 53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 14 TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............57 59 61 62 RH..............82 73 65 56 20 FT WIND......W 5G10 NW 5G10 NW 7G15 N 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 3300 2600 2300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 NW 10 N 17 N 20 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 3 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110217.OAKWO.02/PAH