FNUS71 KRNK 191347 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR LUMBER PLANT FIRE...NCFD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 847 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0839 EST ON FEBRUARY 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO A TRACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES RISE WILL DAYTIME HEATING... RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE...AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION... WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS RANGING FROM AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE COMBINATION OF LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY...ALLOWING A VERY GRADUAL RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. && .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...DECREASING TO 30 MPH LATE. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 29 TO 37 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH. TIME (EST) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............5 7 9 16 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................51 52 53 55 57 RH..................33 28 20 17 15 20 FT WIND..........NW 16 NW 15 NW 15 NW 14 NW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....40 35 35 40 35 EYE LEVEL WIND......NW 8 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 NW 10 EYE LVL WND GST.....30 35 35 40 35 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30. MAX HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 29 TO 35 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............41 47 47 46 50 57 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................51 46 43 41 39 37 RH..................21 27 33 37 41 44 20 FT WIND..........NW 12 NW 10 NW 10 NW 9 N 7 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....30 30 25 25 20 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......NW 9 NW 8 NW 7 NW 7 N 5 NE 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....30 30 25 25 20 15 CWR.................0 0 0 10 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 24 TO 29 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............66 59 64 69 71 69 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................33 34 42 47 51 54 RH..................52 51 38 33 30 30 20 FT WIND..........E 3 SE 5 S 6 S 9 S 10 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 25 30 30 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 2 SE 4 S 5 S 7 S 8 S 8 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 15 25 30 30 CWR.................0 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER REQUESTED BY...ERIC WELKER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110219.LUMBE.01/RNK