FNUS74 KBMX 201348 FWSBMX SPOT FORECAST FOR FLEET FIRE2 20 11AM...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 748 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0742 CST ON FEBRUARY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING LOWER SURFACE MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. HOWEVER...IF THE RETREAT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...THERE MAY BE SOME CONCERN THAT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST ADVICE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE EVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE CLOSER THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED STARTING AROUND 11 AM AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................MISSING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 3600-5200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 69 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 99 INCREASING TO 120 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 109 DECREASING TO 71 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 35. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY.............PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 59 63 66 66 65 RH..............47 44 44 46 47 48 20 FT WIND......E 3 E 6 E 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1000 3500 5100 5200 3600 TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 SE 12 S 16 S 20 S 21 S 16 DISPERSION......3 16 69 115 124 71 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................MISSING. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....8. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY.............PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE FOG TEMP............61 57 55 53 51 48 RH..............53 63 70 78 91 100 20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 S 2 S 1 SW 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....900 400 600 700 700 500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 12 S 15 SW 17 SW 17 SW 16 DISPERSION......7 5 7 8 8 7 .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................MISSING. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....13 INCREASING TO 28 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 50 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 79 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 104 INCREASING TO 122 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 75 DECREASING TO 63 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY.............MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............46 53 63 68 70 69 RH..............100 100 73 63 59 62 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 3 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....600 1700 3000 4000 3900 3200 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 23 SW 28 SW 28 SW 26 SW 25 DISPERSION......13 50 104 76 72 63 $$ FORECASTER...UNGER REQUESTED BY...NOONAN PHIFER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110220.FLEET.01/BMX