FNUS74 KOHX 211306 FWSOHX SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD TRACE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 706 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON FEBRUARY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...TO 30 MPH AT TIMES (20 FT). AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SHOWERS AE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN LIKELY IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-1800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 45 TO 51 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 33 TO 39 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 67 69 69 65 RH..............64 59 55 53 58 20 FT WIND......SW 13 SW 13 SW 13 SW 13 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 2 DISPERSION IDX..162 150 100 80 60 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29 TO 37 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 55 51 48 45 42 RH..............65 80 85 81 81 79 20 FT WIND......SW 10 W 8 NW 7 NW 9 NW 8 NW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 15 10 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 41 45 49 51 51 RH..............74 67 55 47 39 40 20 FT WIND......NW 5 N 6 N 7 NW 7 NW 6 N 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 DISPERSION IDX..26 30 35 35 30 30 $$ FORECASTER...SAM HERRON REQUESTED BY...TRAVIS NEPPL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110221.OLDTR.01/OHX