FNUS73 KPAH 231447 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CAVE CREEK GLADE...IL. DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 847 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CST ON FEBRUARY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREADS THE QUAD STATE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A RESULT...AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD LATE IN THE WEEK...SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REEMERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM HEADS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURE.........41 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 900-2400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............39 42 47 49 51 51 51 51 RH..............62 57 47 46 42 44 46 46 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S SE TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 10 12 13 13 12 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................87 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR MIX HGT (FT)....300 200 300 400 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 SE 6 SE 8 S 9 S 6 S 6 CWR.............90 90 90 90 90 90 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................89 PERCENT. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR CWR.............90 90 90 90 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...BOB LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110223.CAVEC.02/PAH