FNUS72 KRAH 241520 FWSRAH SPOT FORECAST FOR VALENTINE FIRE...NC DIV. FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 1020 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1010 EST ON FEBRUARY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BUT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY GOOD FOR FRIDAY (AFTER 10 AM) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (UNTIL AROUND 7 PM). AMOUNTS WILL BE SCANT THOUGH... JUST A THIRD TO HALF INCH AT MOST. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LIMIT STABILIZATION AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT... WITH TRANSPORT WINDS REMAINING NEAR 20 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............52 64 64 64 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................51 58 63 64 RH..................64 55 50 51 20 FT WIND..........W 2 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........900 3100 3800 3800 TRANSPORT WIND......S 14 S 17 S 21 S 21 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............77 77 77 93 100 100 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................64 61 59 59 59 60 RH..................55 64 71 81 90 90 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 6 S 6 S 7 S 11 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)........1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 10 S 16 S 16 S 21 S 23 S 23 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 40 TO 48 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............100 99 99 77 37 37 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WIDSPD WIDSPD S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................61 61 65 69 72 71 RH..................87 90 82 73 62 61 20 FT WIND..........S 12 SW 14 SW 14 SW 15 SW 14 SW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....35 40 40 40 40 40 MIX HGT (FT)........1200 700 700 2400 5200 5200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 24 SW 40 SW 40 SW 48 W 44 W 44 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY... WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...HARTFIELD REQUESTED BY...ROBERT LIPFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110224.VALEN.01/RAH