FNUS74 KBMX 280019
FWSBMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN LAKE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1811 CST ON FEBRUARY 27.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...THERE ARE NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
WETTING RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY
AS 1 PM TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLIER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE STORM TOTAL.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
CWR.................MISSING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 22 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY.............MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     63     60     60     60     60
RH..............63     75     81     85     87     93
20 FT WIND......S 9    S 10   S 13   S 13   S 12   S 12
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     30     30     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1300   1100   1000   1300   1200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 18   S 18   S 17   S 17   S 22   S 21
DISPERSION......12     12     15     15     24     19

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
CWR.................MISSING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 31
                    TO 38 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 26
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....25 INCREASING TO 46 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 64 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 79 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 98
                    INCREASING TO 103 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 93 DECREASING TO 78 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 61.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............60     64     71     75     76     75
RH..............98     92     75     64     63     62
20 FT WIND......S 12   SW 9   SW 9   SW 13  W 10   W 9
CHC OF PCPN (%).100    100    100    100    100    100
MIX HGT (FT)....900    1700   2900   4000   3700   3100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17   S 26   SW 33  SW 37  SW 38  SW 32
DISPERSION......20     46     79     102    101    78

$$
FORECASTER...LAWS
REQUESTED BY...NOONAN PHIFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110227.MORGA.01/BMX