FNUS72 KMLB 272240
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FARFIELD FIRE...FHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
540 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1707 EST ON FEBRUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO MOVE PAST THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. PAST SUNSET SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 MPH AND BELOW 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE BURN SITE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIND STRENGTH ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOCAL SHORT TERM MODELS ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION
OF A SEA BREEZE ON MONDAY BUT ARE HARD PRESSED TO BRING IT PAST THE BURN
AREA AND FOR NOW BELIEVE IT WILL STAY JUST EAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE LOW...ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS SLOWER TO RESPOND TO
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    OVERNIGHT.
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING MORE
                    SOUTHERLY AND FALLING TO BELOW 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....8.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....                        PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....                        FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TEMP............73  71  70  69  67  67  66  66  65  65  64  63  64
RH..............73  76  80  84  85  87  90  92  94  95  97  98  98
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   8   8   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10
LVORI           1   1   2   2   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   7   7

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    3200-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....64.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...SGT  J L CROSBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110227.FARFI.02/MLB