FNUS72 KMHX 021553 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAVIS RIVER...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1053 AM EST WED MAR 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON MARCH 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE BURN SITE SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (AROUND 35%) DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH POSSIBLE. A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BURN SITE AFTER 10 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SW. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............17 17 19 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE TEMP................57 57 54 RH..................41 35 43 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 9 W 10 W 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 10 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39. MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER 10 PM. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 26 TO 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............19 21 27 32 34 33 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................53 49 45 44 42 41 RH..................48 63 73 70 67 62 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 7 W 7 NW 9 N 13 N 15 N 16 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 20 20 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 28 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............33 32 26 20 18 16 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................41 42 45 46 47 46 RH..................57 53 41 38 37 40 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 17 NE 17 NE 16 NE 15 NE 15 NE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...JAMIE DUNBAR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110302.TRAVI.01/MHX