FNUS73 KPAH 012256 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OGDEN PILE...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 456 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON MARCH 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE DISPERSION INDEX FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR...AND THE THURSDAY DISPERSION INDEX WILL BE FAIR. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD TRAP SMOKE...HOWEVER THE WINDS SHOULD NOT TAKE THE SMOKE ACROSS HIGHWAY 148. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........42 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. RH..................76 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............42 45 48 51 52 54 54 54 52 RH..............76 68 63 52 48 44 40 43 52 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N N N N N NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 7 6 5 6 8 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 45 42 40 38 37 RH..............61 70 76 79 85 85 20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1200 800 500 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 14 NE 16 NE 16 E 14 E 13 E 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............36 44 54 58 RH..............89 73 57 48 20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5G10 SE 5G10 S 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....400 800 1700 1800 TRANSPORT WIND..E 14 E 12 E 10 SE 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BLANCHARD REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110302.OGDEN.01/PAH