FNUS72 KTAE 021313
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 115...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
813 AM EST WED MAR 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON MARCH 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850)942-8835

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE WAKULLA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BRIEF SEA-BREEZE AND A TURN OF THE WINDS ONSHORE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE DAY.

NOTE...BEGINNING THURSDAY MARCH 3RD...A FUEL MOISTURE COMPONENT WILL
BE ADDED TO THIS STATE'S RED FLAG CRITERIA WHICH SHOULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE THE NUMBER OF RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
DETAILS ON THE CHANGE CAN BE FOUND IN A HEADLINE AT THE TOP OF OUR
WEB PAGE. HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST
                    FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3500-3800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....AROUND 70.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............64     68     70     68     67     63
RH..............53     45     40     40     45     58
20 FT WIND......NE 8   E 9    E 8    SE 7   E 7    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.12     14     14     14     12     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO BETWEEN 700-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH THEN INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSION....8.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    10 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 18 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSION....AROUND 77.

$$
FORECASTER...MROCZKA
REQUESTED BY...JOEY LORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110302.UNIT1.01/TAE