FNUS71 KCTP 031734 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR F-01 UPDATE 1...PA NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1234 PM EST THU MAR 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON MARCH 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. 20FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. DESPITE MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34. MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............28 25 25 25 25 25 25 WEATHER COV.........NONE WEATHER TYPE........NONE TEMP................28 31 31 31 32 33 34 RH..................38 29 30 30 30 31 32 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N NE E E 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 6 6 5 5 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE E SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 8 7 5 2 1 2 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 21. MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............36 37 40 45 50 55 61 65 65 67 68 69 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................28 27 26 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 RH..................34 43 46 48 50 53 56 58 61 63 64 66 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......3 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....5 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 16 16 16 16 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 22 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............71 73 77 80 83 85 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................22 25 31 36 39 39 RH..................68 63 54 47 46 50 20 FT WIND..........SE 6 SE 8 S 12 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 20 20 15 TRANSPORT WIND......S 16 S 17 S 20 S 21 S 21 S 22 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110303.F01UP.01/CTP