FNUS73 KSGF 031114 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR NATURAL AREA...MO DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 514 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UPDATED 513 AM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED TERRAIN. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............54 58 61 63 65 68 66 65 RH..............51 45 40 35 32 28 30 36 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 51. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 70 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 59 57 56 54 53 RH..............40 49 55 60 64 68 20 FT WIND......S 6 SE 6 SE 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1400 500 600 600 600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 26 S 29 S 31 S 32 S 31 S 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 67. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 57 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....50 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 33 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............53 54 59 62 64 64 RH..............73 77 70 62 59 61 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6 S 8 S 10 S 10 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 25 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 600 1600 3100 3700 3100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 26 S 29 S 32 S 33 S 30 SW 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ALBERT REQUESTED BY...TIM SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110303.NATUR.01/SGF