FNUS72 KJAX 041223
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RESEARCH PLOTS 3...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
723 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 EST ON MARCH 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS FLOW
REGIME WILL MAINTAIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.  SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
AT TIMES. BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INLAND THEN WEAKEN.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN BELOW 15 MPH...EXCEPT
FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
QUICKLY ESTABLISHING BEHIND THE FRONT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-5600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 8 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....73.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........78     78     76     74     77     77
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............53     63     70     73     73     71
RH..............96     80     62     50     46     55
20 FT WIND......E 8    E 12   E 15   E 16   E 16   E 14
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     25     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....600    3600   3600   5600   5600   4800
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10   E 18   E 18   E 23   E 23   E 22
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 16 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....6.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........77     80     80     80     79     85
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............68     61     59     56     55     53
RH..............55     72     80     83     87     92
20 FT WIND......E 13   E 10   E 9    E 8    E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     15     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4800   1700   1100   1100   400    500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 22   E 22   E 16   E 16   E 9    E 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     20

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....51.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLF
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110304.RESEA.01/JAX