FNUS75 KBOU 021257 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HOWARD RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 555 AM MST WED MAR 2 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL RACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES CARRIED ALONG BY A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SOMEWHAT WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY AGAIN PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH ACTIVITY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BETWEEN THESE STORMS ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0900. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2800-3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30. MAX HUMIDITY........66%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 7-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1600. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HOWARD RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/02-05 65 0 21 93 E 7 7 3 1 W33 226 E 8 1511 P 03/02-06 65 0 21 97 E 6 1 344 E 7 2032 P 03/02-07 65 0 21 98 SE 5 1 461 SE 7 2553 P 03/02-08 65 0 27 77 SE 5 5 5 1 W23 579 S 6 3075 P 03/02-09 31 0 33 60 S 5 1 1071 S 6 4517 P 03/02-10 31 0 40 46 S 6 1 1563 S 5 5959 P 03/02-11 31 0 46 37 S 6 6 4 1 SW18 2055 SW 5 7401 P 03/02-12 31 0 50 31 S 6 1 2540 SW 3 8565 P 03/02-13 30 0 53 28 S 7 1 3024 SW 3 9728 P 03/02-14 30 0 53 28 S 7 7 4 1 W16 3508 SW 3 10892 P 03/02-15 30 0 53 28 S 7 1 3687 SW 5 15901 P 03/02-16 30 0 53 28 SE 6 1 3866 SW 6 20910 P 03/02-17 45 0 53 28 SE 6 6 3 1 SW22 4046 SW 7 25919 P 03/02-18 45 0 48 35 SE 6 1 2772 SW 7 17664 P 03/02-19 45 0 44 42 SE 5 1 1498 S 7 9408 P 03/02-20 45 0 41 46 SE 5 5 2 1 W28 224 SE 6 1153 P 03/02-21 45 0 39 52 S 5 1 196 S 6 958 P 03/02-22 45 0 36 59 SW 3 1 168 SW 5 763 P 03/02-23 47 4 35 62 SW 3 3 2 1 W33 140 SW 5 568 P 03/03-00 47 4 35 63 W 2 1 139 W 5 511 P 03/03-01 47 4 34 63 NW 2 1 138 NW 3 455 P 03/03-02 47 4 33 64 NW 2 2 3 1 NW31 136 NW 3 399 P 03/03-03 47 4 32 65 NW 5 1 138 NW 5 536 P 03/03-04 47 4 31 66 NW 6 1 140 NW 6 674 P 03/03-05 32 0 32 63 NW 8 8 3 1 W33 141 W 7 869 P 03/03-06 32 0 32 63 NW 8 1 219 W 7 1111 P 03/03-07 32 0 35 57 NW 8 1 298 W 6 1352 P 03/03-08 45 0 39 49 W 7 7 3 1 W31 376 W 5 1594 P 03/03-09 45 0 44 43 W 7 1 1856 W 7 18330 P 03/03-10 45 0 48 38 W 7 1 3336 W 10 35065 P 03/03-11 60 24 52 34 W 7 7 3 1 W36 4816 W 13 51801 F 03/03-12 60 24 55 31 W 8 1 7094 W 14 94615 G 03/03-13 60 24 57 28 NW 9 1 9372 W 16 137429 V 03/03-14 58 24 58 27 NW 10 16 3 1 W29 11650 W 17 180242 E 03/03-15 58 24 57 26 N 10 1 10135 W 18 158658 E 03/03-16 58 24 55 28 N 10 1 8620 NW 18 137074 V 03/03-17 66 22 52 31 NE 10 16 3 1 W32 7105 NW 18 115490 V 03/03-18 66 22 49 36 NE 9 1 4848 NW 16 78073 G 03/03-19 66 22 45 43 N 8 1 2591 N 14 40656 F 03/03-20 66 22 41 51 N 7 7 3 1 W25 335 N 12 3238 P 03/03-21 70 24 38 57 N 7 1 309 N 10 2759 P 03/03-22 70 24 36 62 NE 6 1 282 NE 9 2280 P 03/03-23 70 24 34 66 NE 6 6 2 1 W21 256 NE 8 1800 P 03/04-00 78 24 32 72 N 6 1 263 NE 7 1621 P 03/04-01 78 24 31 77 N 5 1 270 NE 6 1441 P 03/04-02 78 24 30 82 N 5 5 2 1 W18 277 NE 6 1261 P 03/04-03 87 24 30 83 N 5 1 343 NE 6 1757 P 03/04-04 87 24 30 81 N 6 1 410 NE 6 2252 P 03/04-05 87 24 30 80 N 6 6 2 1 W17 476 NE 7 2748 P 03/04-06 70 26 30 84 NE 6 1 680 NE 6 2668 P 03/04-07 70 26 30 92 NE 6 1 884 NE 3 2588 P 03/04-08 79 26 33 89 E 6 6 2 1 W22 1088 NE 2 2508 P 03/04-09 79 26 35 81 NE 5 1 1988 NE 3 5562 P 03/04-10 79 26 38 73 NE 3 1 2889 NW 3 8615 P 03/04-11 71 19 40 66 NE 2 2 3 1 NW23 3789 NW 3 11669 P 03/04-12 71 19 42 62 NE 2 1 4327 NW 6 23181 P 03/04-13 71 19 43 59 N 5 1 4866 NW 8 34694 P 03/04-14 69 19 43 58 NW 6 6 3 1 W24 5405 NW 10 46206 F 03/04-15 69 19 43 59 N 8 1 3688 NW 9 31451 P 03/04-16 69 19 41 62 N 9 1 1971 N 9 16696 P 03/04-17 61 9 38 68 N 10 16 3 1 NW28 254 N 9 1941 P 03/04-18 61 9 36 70 N 9 1 219 N 8 1631 P 03/04-19 61 9 32 73 NE 8 1 183 N 8 1322 P 03/04-20 54 9 29 78 NE 7 7 3 1 NW28 147 NE 8 1013 P 03/04-21 54 9 27 85 NE 7 1 137 NE 8 927 P 03/04-22 54 9 25 91 NE 7 1 126 NE 8 842 P 03/04-23 49 7 23 95 NE 8 13 3 1 NW28 115 NE 8 757 P 03/05-00 49 7 22 97 NE 8 1 111 N 7 657 P 03/05-01 49 7 21 95 N 9 1 108 N 6 556 P 03/05-02 42 7 20 93 NW 9 15 3 1 NW24 104 NW 5 456 P 03/05-03 42 7 20 90 NW 9 1 104 NW 7 595 P 03/05-04 42 7 20 85 W 10 1 105 W 8 735 P 03/05-05 32 5 20 81 SW 10 16 3 1 N21 105 W 9 874 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAMES WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110307.HOWAR.01/BOU