FNUS72 KMHX 071324
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR STUMPY BURN...USFWS ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
824 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON MARCH 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS MORNING AS DEEP LAYER DRYING FOLLOWS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NNW 20 FT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO N THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
SUNSHINE PROVIDES FOR GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 60S THIS MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE BURN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 16 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-3100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (EST)          10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............19     12     10     10
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................46     48     49     49
RH..................63     56     52     50
20 FT WIND (MPH)....NW 18  N 17   N 17   N 16
20 FT WIND GUST.....30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX........4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............25     31     35     39     40     40
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................47     44     42     40     40     40
RH..................56     60     60     64     64     67
20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 16   N 16   N 15   N 14   N 14   N 13
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     20     20     20     15     15
HAINES INDEX........4      4      4      4      4      4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2300-3100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 20 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............37     36     37     39     40     44
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................40     41     47     50     52     51
RH..................82     82     63     56     54     56
20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 14  NE 14  NE 14  NE 14  NE 14  NE 13
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX........4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...LONKA
REQUESTED BY...AMY MIDGETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110307.STUMP.01/MHX