FNUS75 KBOU 081347 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE PILE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 647 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER 1000. OTHERWISE I EXPECT LOW CLOUD COVER AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH 1200 SO WILL GO WITH POOR DISPERSAL AT LEAST THROUGH 1200. THE MODELS SUGGEST BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER 1200 WHICH MAY HELP DISPERSAL TO REACH THE GOOD CATEGORY BY 1300. HOWEVER IF MIXING DOES NOT OCCUR THEN DISPERSAL WILL REMAIN POOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....27. MIN HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 0500. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....18. MAX HUMIDITY........63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-23 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 36-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 2400-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35. MIN HUMIDITY........35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 44-52 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500. GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE PILE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/08-06 93 78 16 96 W 7 1 458 W 12 5288 P 03/08-07 93 78 17 92 W 9 1 585 NW 15 8603 P 03/08-08 93 78 19 87 NW 12 18 3 1 NW10 712 NW 20 11917 P 03/08-09 93 78 21 80 NW 13 1 1668 NW 22 35161 P 03/08-10 93 78 22 75 NW 13 1 2624 NW 24 58406 F 03/08-11 92 60 24 69 NW 13 21 3 1 NW16 3579 NW 26 81650 G 03/08-12 92 60 25 65 NW 13 1 4071 NW 26 94625 G 03/08-13 92 60 26 61 NW 13 1 4563 NW 28 107600 V 03/08-14 92 60 26 58 NW 13 21 2 1 W22 5056 NW 28 120575 V 03/08-15 92 60 26 56 NW 13 1 5145 NW 30 132036 V 03/08-16 92 60 26 55 W 13 1 5234 NW 31 143496 V 03/08-17 80 50 25 54 W 13 21 2 1 NW38 5323 NW 33 154957 E 03/08-18 80 50 24 54 W 14 1 4767 NW 33 138176 V 03/08-19 80 50 23 54 W 15 1 4211 NW 33 121395 V 03/08-20 80 50 22 54 W 16 25 2 1 NW54 3655 NW 33 104614 V 03/08-21 80 50 21 53 W 16 1 3245 W 32 92311 G 03/08-22 80 50 20 53 W 17 1 2836 W 32 80008 G 03/08-23 70 50 20 53 W 17 28 2 1 NW55 2426 W 32 67705 G 03/09-00 70 50 19 54 W 18 1 2430 W 36 74609 G 03/09-01 70 50 19 56 W 21 1 2434 W 38 81514 G 03/09-02 70 50 18 58 W 22 35 2 1 NW64 2438 W 41 88418 G 03/09-03 70 50 18 60 W 22 1 2465 W 43 90921 G 03/09-04 70 50 18 61 W 22 1 2491 W 43 93425 G 03/09-05 58 28 18 63 W 22 35 2 1 NW76 2518 W 44 95928 G 03/09-06 58 28 18 61 W 22 1 2711 W 46 109024 V 03/09-07 58 28 19 59 W 21 1 2904 NW 48 122120 V 03/09-08 58 28 22 53 W 21 33 3 1 NW69 3097 NW 51 135215 V 03/09-09 58 28 24 48 W 21 1 3525 NW 48 144851 V 03/09-10 58 28 29 41 W 22 1 3953 NW 46 154488 E 03/09-11 49 17 32 38 W 22 33 4 1 NW62 4381 NW 43 164124 E 03/09-12 49 17 34 36 W 22 1 4518 NW 41 164330 E 03/09-13 49 17 35 35 W 22 1 4654 NW 40 164536 E 03/09-14 49 17 35 36 W 21 31 4 1 NW64 4791 NW 39 164743 E 03/09-15 49 17 34 38 W 18 1 4261 NW 38 142840 V 03/09-16 49 17 33 39 W 16 1 3731 W 37 120936 V 03/09-17 32 5 31 43 W 15 23 4 1 NW56 3201 W 36 99033 G 03/09-18 32 5 29 46 W 14 1 2810 W 32 81483 G 03/09-19 32 5 27 49 W 14 1 2418 W 30 63932 G 03/09-20 32 5 26 50 W 15 23 4 1 NW45 2027 W 26 46381 F 03/09-21 14 5 26 51 W 16 1 1786 W 25 39680 P 03/09-22 14 5 25 51 W 17 1 1545 W 24 32980 P 03/09-23 14 5 25 53 W 18 28 2 1 NW44 1304 W 23 26279 P 03/10-00 14 5 24 53 W 18 1 1345 W 23 27208 P 03/10-01 14 5 24 53 W 17 1 1386 W 23 28136 P 03/10-02 14 5 25 52 W 17 26 2 1 W52 1427 W 23 29065 P 03/10-03 14 5 24 54 W 18 1 1446 W 26 33567 P 03/10-04 14 5 25 53 W 20 1 1464 W 30 38068 P 03/10-05 21 0 24 55 W 21 31 3 1 NW44 1483 W 33 42570 F 03/10-06 21 0 25 54 W 21 1 1500 W 32 42326 F 03/10-07 21 0 26 52 W 20 1 1516 W 32 42083 F 03/10-08 21 0 28 49 W 18 28 4 1 NW40 1533 W 31 41840 F 03/10-09 22 0 31 47 W 17 1 2041 W 30 53175 F 03/10-10 22 0 36 41 W 16 1 2549 W 30 64511 G 03/10-11 23 0 39 39 W 16 24 4 1 W24 3057 W 29 75847 G 03/10-12 23 0 42 37 W 17 1 3445 W 31 92767 G 03/10-13 24 0 43 36 W 17 1 3832 W 32 109687 V 03/10-14 24 0 43 36 W 18 28 4 1 W26 4220 W 35 126607 V 03/10-15 24 0 42 37 W 18 1 3703 W 36 114551 V 03/10-16 24 0 41 39 W 20 1 3186 W 38 102494 V 03/10-17 33 3 38 43 W 20 30 4 1 W29 2669 W 39 90438 G 03/10-18 33 3 36 46 W 20 1 2166 W 37 71297 G 03/10-19 33 3 34 49 W 20 1 1662 W 35 52155 F 03/10-20 35 3 33 49 W 20 30 2 1 W33 1158 W 33 33014 P 03/10-21 39 3 32 50 W 20 1 1162 W 33 33582 P 03/10-22 43 3 32 49 W 21 1 1165 W 33 34151 P 03/10-23 46 10 31 51 W 21 31 2 1 W37 1169 W 35 34720 P 03/11-00 50 10 30 51 W 22 1 1213 W 39 41006 F 03/11-01 54 10 30 50 W 23 1 1257 W 43 47293 F 03/11-02 56 10 31 49 W 25 37 2 1 W47 1301 W 47 53580 F 03/11-03 56 10 30 51 W 26 1 1287 W 52 57635 F 03/11-04 56 10 30 50 W 28 1 1274 W 55 61690 G 03/11-05 56 16 30 50 W 28 41 2 1 W52 1261 W 60 65745 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GERALD TUZON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110308.LILYL.01/BOU