FNUS74 KAMA 101038 FWSAMA SPOT FORECAST FOR HALLS CREEK HEAD FIRE...HL RANCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 438 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CST ON MARCH 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 13 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINING WITH THE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO JUST UNDER 10 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR THESE POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BURN SITE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING WINDS TO POSSIBLY WEAKEN FOR A TIME...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........26 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 13 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............26 30 46 58 66 68 RH..............63 53 29 19 14 13 20 FT WIND......NW 5 W 7 SW 10 S 14 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 20 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING... DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE EVENING. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 52 46 42 39 36 RH..............14 23 31 39 45 52 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81. RH..................MIN 9 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...DECREASING TO 8 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 1500-2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING... THEN INCREASING TO 12000-13000 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............34 39 56 69 78 81 RH..............57 47 24 15 11 9 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 15 SW 17 SW 22 SW 16 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 25 35 25 15 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BUFFALO REQUESTED BY...ANDREW BIVINS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110310.HALLS.01/AMA