FNUS75 KBOU 101231 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK RX...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 518 AM MST THU MAR 10 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE WERE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR THE BURN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE IS JUST A CHANCE THAT A FEW GUSTS OF WESTERLY WINDS MOVE BACK ACROSS THE BURN SITE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD TO VERY GOOD LOFTING OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND DISPERSION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AND FIRE DANGER WILL BOTH INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS MOVE OFF THE FOOTHILLS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-14 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH POSSIBLE UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-12 MPH UNTIL 1600...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9200-10200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....40. MAX HUMIDITY........31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 19-29 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5200-6200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/10-05 7 0 37 38 W 13 21 3 1 NW33 563 W 23 10987 P 03/10-06 7 0 37 38 W 14 1 856 W 20 12897 P 03/10-07 7 0 40 35 W 14 1 1149 NW 16 14807 P 03/10-08 9 0 45 29 W 13 21 3 1 NW32 1442 NW 14 16718 P 03/10-09 9 0 52 22 SW 12 1 3927 NW 13 36250 P 03/10-10 9 0 58 18 S 9 1 6413 NW 12 55783 F 03/10-11 11 0 62 15 SE 8 13 3 1 NW22 8899 NW 9 75316 G 03/10-12 11 0 64 14 SE 8 1 9629 W 12 93684 G 03/10-13 11 0 66 12 E 8 1 10359 W 13 112053 V 03/10-14 11 0 66 12 E 8 13 3 1 W22 11089 W 14 130421 V 03/10-15 20 0 67 12 SE 8 1 10319 W 14 127299 V 03/10-16 20 0 66 13 SE 7 1 9549 W 15 124176 V 03/10-17 20 0 64 14 SW 7 7 3 1 SW24 8780 W 16 121054 V 03/10-18 37 0 61 16 W 7 1 7258 W 17 104206 V 03/10-19 37 0 57 19 W 8 1 5737 W 18 87359 G 03/10-20 43 0 55 21 W 9 15 3 1 W22 4216 W 20 70512 G 03/10-21 43 0 52 24 W 10 1 3098 W 16 49711 F 03/10-22 43 0 50 26 W 10 1 1979 W 14 28911 P 03/10-23 47 0 49 27 W 12 18 3 1 W38 861 SW 10 8110 P 03/11-00 47 0 47 29 W 13 1 680 W 14 7227 P 03/11-01 47 0 45 31 W 15 1 498 W 17 6344 P 03/11-02 50 0 43 31 W 17 28 3 1 W31 317 W 20 5460 P 03/11-03 50 0 43 31 W 20 1 386 W 24 8899 P 03/11-04 50 0 43 31 W 21 1 456 W 30 12338 P 03/11-05 41 0 43 30 W 22 35 3 1 SW18 526 W 35 15940 P 03/11-06 41 0 43 29 W 23 1 475 W 36 14704 P 03/11-07 41 0 44 28 W 23 1 425 W 37 13467 P 03/11-08 41 0 46 26 W 24 39 5 1 W29 374 W 38 12231 P 03/11-09 41 0 51 22 W 24 1 1911 W 41 80514 G 03/11-10 41 0 55 18 W 25 1 3447 W 46 148798 V 03/11-11 41 0 59 16 W 25 40 3 1 W63 4984 W 51 217081 E 03/11-12 41 0 61 14 W 26 1 5409 W 52 244066 E 03/11-13 41 0 64 13 W 26 1 5835 W 53 271050 E 03/11-14 41 0 64 13 W 25 40 4 1 W48 6261 W 55 298034 E 03/11-15 41 0 64 13 W 22 1 5891 W 49 254945 E 03/11-16 41 0 61 15 W 16 1 5521 W 44 211857 E 03/11-17 27 0 57 17 W 12 18 3 1 NW45 5151 W 38 168768 E 03/11-18 27 0 53 20 NW 9 1 3949 NW 26 114591 V 03/11-19 27 0 48 24 NE 7 1 2746 N 16 60414 G 03/11-20 27 0 43 30 E 6 6 2 1 W41 1543 NE 5 6236 P 03/11-21 27 0 39 36 E 5 1 1720 E 5 7845 P 03/11-22 27 0 36 41 SE 5 1 1896 SE 6 9454 P 03/11-23 27 0 34 45 SE 5 5 2 1 W49 2073 S 6 11063 P 03/12-00 27 0 32 50 SE 5 1 1551 S 7 8472 P 03/12-01 27 0 31 53 S 3 1 1030 S 7 5881 P 03/12-02 27 0 30 56 S 3 3 2 1 W40 508 S 7 3289 P 03/12-03 27 0 29 58 SW 3 1 491 S 6 2530 P 03/12-04 27 0 29 58 W 2 1 474 SW 5 1770 P 03/12-05 27 0 30 58 W 2 2 3 1 W44 456 SW 2 1010 P 03/12-06 27 0 30 57 CALM 1 763 SW 3 2453 P 03/12-07 27 0 33 53 CALM 1 1070 W 3 3896 P 03/12-08 27 0 38 44 CALM 1 3 1 W44 1377 W 5 5339 P 03/12-09 27 0 44 36 S 2 1 2497 W 9 27026 P 03/12-10 27 0 50 30 SE 3 1 3616 W 13 48714 F 03/12-11 40 0 55 26 E 5 5 2 1 W45 4736 W 17 70402 G 03/12-12 40 0 58 23 E 5 1 6215 W 21 117463 V 03/12-13 40 0 61 21 NE 3 1 7694 W 23 164525 E 03/12-14 40 0 62 20 NE 2 2 2 1 W36 9173 W 26 211587 E 03/12-15 40 0 62 20 N 2 1 8022 W 24 175300 E 03/12-16 40 0 60 21 NW 2 1 6871 W 23 139013 V 03/12-17 50 0 58 23 NW 2 2 2 1 W32 5720 W 21 102726 V 03/12-18 50 0 55 26 NW 2 1 4505 W 18 76351 G 03/12-19 50 0 52 30 W 3 1 3291 W 16 49977 F 03/12-20 50 0 48 35 W 3 3 2 1 W24 2076 W 13 23602 P 03/12-21 50 0 45 39 W 5 1 1547 W 10 16590 P 03/12-22 50 0 43 42 SW 5 1 1019 W 8 9579 P 03/12-23 50 10 42 45 SW 6 6 2 1 W25 490 W 6 2567 P 03/13-00 50 10 40 48 SW 6 1 552 W 7 3232 P 03/13-01 50 10 39 49 W 6 1 614 NW 7 3896 P 03/13-02 50 10 39 51 W 6 6 2 1 W43 675 NW 8 4561 P 03/13-03 50 10 38 51 W 6 1 1073 NW 8 8474 P 03/13-04 50 10 38 50 W 5 1 1471 NW 9 12387 P 03/13-05 60 10 39 49 W 5 5 2 1 W35 1869 NW 10 16301 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ANTHONY PISCOPO REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110310.BEARC.01/BOU