FNUS74 KLZK 101248 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKALAH PINE REGENERATION...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 648 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON MARCH 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INVERSION ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD MIX OUT BY 8-9AM CST...ALLOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 9 MPH TO BEGIN SURFACING AT THE BURN SITE. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE LESSEN. SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET...WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION LYING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 1000 FT AGL BY 10 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. LIGHT UPSLOPE OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING THEREAFTER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 9 MPH POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 4700 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. TIME (CST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 53 55 56 55 54 RH..............38 36 34 33 34 35 EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 8 8 6 3 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 17 16 15 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 1600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....6. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 45 42 39 36 36 RH..............39 49 56 62 70 71 EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW NW NW W SW EYE LVL WND SPD.3 2 1 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 0 0 0 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.13 9 6 3 2 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68. RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3900 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............34 45 59 66 RH..............80 55 35 30 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.1 3 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.0 3 5 5 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 9 14 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...TODD HOOPES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110310.CHICK.01/LZK