FNUS75 KBOU 111912 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LEFTHAND CANYON FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1212 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. WIND FORECAST WILL BE MORE COMPLEX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS ON THE PLAINS SHIFT AROUND THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE RIDGES MAY JUST GO BACK TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE FIRE IS A SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN GOING BACK TO WEST LATER TONIGHT. THAT WIND SHIFT WOULD BRING HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. AGAIN...TIMING OF THIS SHIFT OR EVEN WHETHER IT OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PLEASE NOTE THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE FORECAST TEXT ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE WINDS IN THE TABLE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION. USE THE TEXT FORECAST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63. MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......CANYON...WEST 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RIDGES...WEST 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-30. MAX HUMIDITY........58-68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......CANYON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8-13 MPH BY 2000. WEST 6-12 MPH AFTER 0300. RIDGES...BECOME SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH BY 2000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LEFTHAND CANYON FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/11-11 19 1 58 20 NW 8 13 3 1 W54 5610 W 53 257539 E 03/11-12 24 1 59 16 NW 17 18 1 6702 W 49 284137 E 03/11-13 35 1 59 14 NW 24 29 1 7795 W 47 310735 E 03/11-14 40 1 59 13 NW 29 46 2 1 W63 8888 W 44 337333 E 03/11-15 40 1 58 14 W 29 1 7863 W 40 281484 E 03/11-16 40 1 56 17 W 26 1 6838 W 37 225635 E 03/11-17 16 3 53 20 W 22 35 2 1 W58 5813 W 33 169786 E 03/11-18 16 3 50 24 W 17 1 4696 SW 25 118953 V 03/11-19 16 3 46 29 S 14 1 3579 S 16 68120 G 03/11-20 16 3 42 36 S 10 16 2 1 W48 2463 S 8 17287 P 03/11-21 16 3 38 43 S 9 1 2759 S 9 23662 P 03/11-22 16 3 38 43 SE 9 1 3055 S 12 30038 P 03/11-23 25 3 40 40 SE 9 15 2 1 W49 3352 SW 13 36413 P 03/12-00 25 3 40 40 SE 9 1 2869 SW 10 28132 P 03/12-01 25 3 37 45 E 9 1 2386 SW 9 19851 P 03/12-02 25 3 36 48 NE 9 15 3 1 W51 1903 SW 7 11570 P 03/12-03 25 3 35 48 NE 9 1 1750 SW 7 10683 P 03/12-04 25 3 35 48 N 9 1 1596 W 7 9795 P 03/12-05 44 0 35 48 NW 9 15 2 1 W51 1443 W 7 8908 P 03/12-06 44 0 34 51 N 8 1 1390 W 8 9927 P 03/12-07 44 0 32 54 E 8 1 1336 W 9 10946 P 03/12-08 44 0 37 46 SE 7 7 3 1 W52 1283 W 10 11966 P 03/12-09 44 0 42 39 SE 7 1 2726 W 20 69893 G 03/12-10 44 0 46 33 SE 7 1 4169 W 29 127819 V 03/12-11 50 25 50 30 SE 8 13 2 1 W55 5613 W 38 185746 E 03/12-12 50 25 52 29 E 9 1 6164 W 36 185892 E 03/12-13 50 25 52 30 N 12 1 6715 W 32 186037 E 03/12-14 50 25 52 31 NW 13 21 2 1 W51 7267 W 30 186182 E 03/12-15 50 25 52 33 N 13 1 7222 W 29 179757 E 03/12-16 50 25 52 34 N 10 1 7177 W 28 173332 E 03/12-17 70 28 52 35 N 9 15 2 1 W47 7133 W 26 166907 E 03/12-18 70 28 49 38 N 8 1 5935 W 23 127142 V 03/12-19 70 28 46 43 NW 7 1 4737 W 20 87378 G 03/12-20 70 28 42 50 W 6 6 2 1 W41 3539 W 15 47613 F 03/12-21 70 28 40 58 W 5 1 2701 W 17 45128 F 03/12-22 70 28 38 62 W 5 1 1979 W 15 29001 P 03/12-23 70 20 36 64 W 5 5 3 1 W38 1258 W 12 12875 P 03/13-00 70 20 35 66 W 5 1 1019 W 12 10336 P 03/13-01 70 20 34 65 W 5 1 781 W 12 7798 P 03/13-02 70 20 33 64 W 6 7 3 1 W48 542 W 12 5259 P 03/13-03 70 20 33 62 W 6 1 506 W 13 5390 P 03/13-04 70 20 33 59 NW 6 1 470 W 14 5521 P 03/13-05 53 10 33 57 NW 6 15 3 1 W39 434 W 15 5652 P 03/13-06 53 10 34 54 W 5 1 1042 W 18 21080 P 03/13-07 53 10 35 51 W 3 1 1651 W 23 36507 P 03/13-08 53 10 38 45 SW 3 7 2 1 W47 2259 W 26 51935 F 03/13-09 53 10 42 39 SW 5 1 3628 W 26 82719 G 03/13-10 53 10 45 35 S 7 1 4997 W 26 113502 V 03/13-11 53 10 48 32 S 8 5 2 1 NW48 6367 W 26 144286 V 03/13-12 53 10 50 30 S 7 1 6796 W 24 139402 V 03/13-13 53 10 51 29 S 5 1 7226 NW 22 134518 V 03/13-14 53 10 52 29 S 2 13 2 1 NW37 7655 NW 20 129634 V 03/13-15 53 10 52 30 SW 3 1 6637 NW 17 102444 V 03/13-16 53 10 50 32 W 5 1 5620 NW 15 75254 G 03/13-17 35 0 47 36 W 7 16 4 1 NW31 4602 NW 12 48064 F 03/13-18 35 0 45 40 W 7 1 3149 W 10 32502 P 03/13-19 35 0 42 46 W 7 1 1696 W 8 16941 P 03/13-20 35 0 38 53 W 7 14 4 1 W21 243 W 7 1379 P 03/13-21 35 0 35 58 W 8 1 238 W 6 1243 P 03/13-22 35 0 34 61 W 10 1 233 SW 6 1107 P 03/13-23 11 0 32 63 W 12 6 3 1 W22 228 SW 5 971 P 03/14-00 11 0 31 64 W 12 1 218 SW 6 1030 P 03/14-01 11 0 30 62 W 12 1 209 SW 6 1090 P 03/14-02 11 0 29 60 W 10 7 4 1 W28 199 W 7 1149 P 03/14-03 11 0 29 58 W 10 1 180 W 7 1082 P 03/14-04 11 0 29 55 W 9 1 160 W 7 1015 P 03/14-05 41 7 29 53 W 9 13 2 1 W36 141 W 8 948 P 03/14-06 41 7 30 52 W 8 1 03/14-07 41 7 33 48 W 8 1 03/14-08 41 7 37 42 SW 7 7 1 03/14-09 41 7 43 36 SW 7 1 03/14-10 41 7 47 31 SW 6 1 03/14-11 41 7 51 28 SW 6 6 1 03/14-12 7 55 25 1 03/14-13 7 57 24 1 03/14-14 7 58 23 6 1 03/14-15 7 58 23 1 03/14-16 7 57 24 1 03/14-17 54 12 54 27 W 8 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...KENT SPERRY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110311.LEFTH.01/BOU