FNUS75 KBOU 120003 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LEFTHAND CANYON FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 500 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 1800...BUT A STRONG BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 1800 AND 1900 ACROSS THE FIRE AREA. BEST TIMING ON EXACT WIND SHIFT IS AT 1820 LOCAL TIME. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 12 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE RIDGES MAY JUST GO BACK TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE NOTE THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE FORECAST TEXT ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE WINDS IN THE TABLE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION. USE THE TEXT FORECAST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY...THROUGH 6 PM.. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MIN HUMIDITY........25-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH UNTIL 1800. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....27. MAX HUMIDITY........71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 15-25 MPH BETWEEN 1800 AND 1830. BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 2400 AT 8-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-13 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTH 9-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6200-7200 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LEFTHAND CANYON FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/11-14 38 0 59 16 W 6 6 2 1 W63 8017 W 41 284800 E 03/11-15 39 0 60 15 W 9 25 1 8020 W 39 274677 E 03/11-16 40 0 61 15 W 15 1 8023 W 38 264554 E 03/11-17 37 0 60 16 W 17 28 2 1 W58 8026 W 37 254431 E 03/11-18 37 0 55 20 W 16 1 6766 W 28 180775 E 03/11-19 37 0 50 25 S 12 1 5506 SW 18 107120 V 03/11-20 37 0 45 32 S 8 13 2 1 W48 4246 SW 9 33464 P 03/11-21 37 0 41 39 S 7 1 3530 SW 9 27705 P 03/11-22 37 0 38 45 SE 7 1 2814 S 9 21946 P 03/11-23 45 4 36 50 SE 7 7 2 1 W49 2099 S 9 16187 P 03/12-00 45 4 34 55 E 7 1 1641 S 7 11597 P 03/12-01 45 4 33 58 E 7 1 1184 S 6 7007 P 03/12-02 45 4 32 61 NE 7 7 3 1 W51 726 SW 3 2417 P 03/12-03 45 4 30 65 NE 8 1 650 SW 5 2324 P 03/12-04 45 4 29 69 N 8 1 573 W 5 2231 P 03/12-05 58 4 29 71 NW 9 15 2 1 W51 496 W 5 2138 P 03/12-06 58 4 29 71 N 9 1 759 W 7 5412 P 03/12-07 58 4 30 69 E 8 1 1021 W 9 8687 P 03/12-08 58 4 37 52 SE 7 7 3 1 W52 1283 W 10 11961 P 03/12-09 58 4 42 43 SE 7 1 2726 W 20 69885 G 03/12-10 58 4 46 36 SE 7 1 4169 W 29 127808 V 03/12-11 59 25 50 32 SE 8 13 2 1 W55 5612 W 38 185732 E 03/12-12 59 25 52 30 E 9 1 6164 W 36 185883 E 03/12-13 59 25 52 30 N 12 1 6715 W 32 186033 E 03/12-14 59 25 52 31 NW 13 21 2 1 W51 7267 W 30 186184 E 03/12-15 59 25 52 32 N 13 1 7222 W 29 179761 E 03/12-16 59 25 52 33 N 10 1 7178 W 28 173337 E 03/12-17 70 28 52 34 N 9 15 2 1 W47 7133 W 26 166913 E 03/12-18 70 28 46 43 N 8 1 4834 W 20 111674 V 03/12-19 70 28 44 47 NW 7 1 2536 W 13 56436 F 03/12-20 70 28 31 77 W 6 6 2 1 W41 237 W 6 1197 P 03/12-21 70 28 43 48 W 5 1 1840 W 9 25747 P 03/12-22 70 28 44 46 W 5 1 3503 W 13 50651 F 03/12-23 70 20 44 46 W 5 5 2 1 W40 5165 W 17 75555 G 03/13-00 70 20 44 45 W 5 1 4838 W 16 68308 G 03/13-01 70 20 43 47 W 6 1 4511 W 15 61061 G 03/13-02 70 20 42 49 W 6 6 2 1 W41 4184 W 15 53815 F 03/13-03 70 20 42 49 W 6 1 3884 W 14 47139 F 03/13-04 70 20 41 49 NW 6 1 3585 W 13 40464 F 03/13-05 53 10 41 50 NW 6 6 2 1 W43 3286 W 12 33789 P 03/13-06 53 10 40 51 W 5 1 4112 W 13 47761 F 03/13-07 53 10 41 49 W 3 1 4939 W 14 61734 G 03/13-08 53 10 46 39 SW 3 3 2 1 W37 5766 W 15 75707 G 03/13-09 53 10 49 35 SW 5 1 6566 W 15 81902 G 03/13-10 53 10 51 32 S 7 1 7365 W 14 88096 G 03/13-11 53 10 53 30 S 8 13 2 1 W32 8165 W 14 94291 G 03/13-12 53 10 52 30 S 7 1 8398 W 14 99102 G 03/13-13 53 10 54 29 S 3 1 8632 W 14 103914 V 03/13-14 53 10 54 28 S 2 2 2 1 W31 8865 W 14 108725 V 03/13-15 53 10 55 27 SW 3 1 8269 W 13 95219 G 03/13-16 53 10 54 28 W 5 1 7673 W 13 81712 G 03/13-17 35 0 52 31 W 7 7 2 1 NW31 7077 W 12 68206 G 03/13-18 35 0 48 35 W 7 1 4766 W 9 45762 F 03/13-19 35 0 46 38 W 7 1 2455 W 8 23317 P 03/13-20 35 0 31 69 W 7 7 2 1 W26 144 W 7 873 P 03/13-21 35 0 44 41 W 8 1 1133 W 8 8464 P 03/13-22 35 0 45 39 W 10 1 2123 W 8 16056 P 03/13-23 11 0 45 39 W 12 18 2 1 W23 3113 W 9 23647 P 03/14-00 11 0 45 37 W 12 1 2608 W 9 19922 P 03/14-01 11 0 44 36 W 12 1 2102 W 9 16197 P 03/14-02 11 0 42 36 W 10 16 2 1 W28 1597 W 9 12471 P 03/14-03 11 0 42 34 W 10 1 1469 W 9 11633 P 03/14-04 11 0 42 32 W 9 1 1340 W 9 10795 P 03/14-05 41 5 42 32 W 9 15 2 1 W31 1211 W 9 9957 P 03/14-06 41 5 41 34 W 8 1 1966 W 10 17224 P 03/14-07 41 5 41 34 W 8 1 2720 W 10 24491 P 03/14-08 41 5 48 28 SW 7 7 2 1 W35 3475 W 10 31758 P 03/14-09 41 5 51 26 SW 6 1 4707 W 13 57188 F 03/14-10 41 5 53 26 SW 6 1 5939 W 15 82619 G 03/14-11 41 5 55 25 SW 6 6 2 1 W38 7171 W 17 108050 V 03/14-12 41 5 54 27 SW 6 1 7451 W 17 115278 V 03/14-13 41 5 56 26 SW 7 1 7731 W 18 122507 V 03/14-14 41 5 57 27 W 7 7 2 1 W41 8011 W 18 129735 V 03/14-15 41 5 58 26 W 7 1 7704 W 18 119850 V 03/14-16 41 5 56 29 W 8 1 7398 W 17 109965 V 03/14-17 41 5 54 32 W 8 13 2 1 W45 7092 W 16 100080 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/SWE REQUESTED BY...KENT SPERRY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110311.LEFTH.01/BOU