FNUS73 KPAH 111621 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CHARRED TREE RIDGE FARM...MISSOURI DEPT OF CONSERVATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1021 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 CST ON MARCH 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION TODAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION UNDER CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL AID IN THE EVAPORATION OF FINE FUELS TODAY. MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FORECAST AREAS...25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SHAWNEE FOREST AREAS...AND BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. TWENTY FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION. AFTER TODAY...A SWIFT MOVING...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 63. RH..................30 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 18 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 33 TO 35 MPH. TIME (CST) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 61 60 RH..............30 31 33 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.8 2.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.30 33 35 CWR.............0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 40. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 17 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 3 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 52 48 46 44 43 RH..............35 44 51 58 65 70 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 SW 5 SW 5 W 5 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2000 1600 1300 1200 1200 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 35 SW 24 SW 9 N 0 NW 6 NW 17 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65. RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 50 59 63 RH..............73 58 45 41 20 FT WIND......W 3G5 NW 6G15 W 6G15 SW 6G15 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2200 3000 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 25 NW 20 W 9 W 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...GARY GOGNAT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110311.CHARR.01/PAH