FNUS72 KTAE 110820
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR ST JOSEPHBAYSTATEBUFFERPRESERVE...DEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON MARCH 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850)942-8835.

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRY AIRMASS COUPLED
WITH HIGH DISPERSION VALUES WILL LIKELY CREATE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...RIGHT AT THE
FIRE SITE NEAR THE COASTLINE...DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLD OF 75...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 35 PERCENT. LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE RESULTANT ERC VALUES SINCE 20 FOOT WINDS AND
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION..........56.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
SKY (%).........10     10     9      9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     55     59     61
RH..............45     38     36     37
20 FT WIND......N 7    NW 7   W 8    W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.20     15     20     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION..........7.

TIME (CST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........9      9      10     10     10     13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............56     51     48     47     45     44
RH..............49     60     68     70     71     74
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 5    NW 5   NW 4   NW 3   N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10     10     10

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    2400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (CST)      5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
SKY (%).........13     15     15     15     14     13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............42     47     61     64     66     66
RH..............86     73     45     40     39     42
20 FT WIND......NE 2   E 2    E 4    SE 5   S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     15     15

$$

FORECASTER...DON VAN DYKE
REQUESTED BY...JEAN HUFFMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110311.STJOS.01/TAE