FNUS73 KPAH 121314 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR HANDY BURN UNIT E...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 714 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON MARCH 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A SWITCH IN THE WINDS FROM WEST AT IGNITION TIME...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY 5 PM CST. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6 PM CST AND 10 PM CST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM CST...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 0 TO 3 MPH. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 61 63 65 65 65 63 RH..............49 45 42 40 39 40 44 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.2 3 3 3 2 2 2 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300-2700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 13 TO 22 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 55 51 49 45 43 RH..............50 57 60 63 79 89 20 FT WIND......SE 2 E 2 NE 3 N 4 NE 5 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4800 3900 2700 1500 1300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..E 2 E 3 E 5 E 7 E 13 NE 18 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...TIM PERREN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110312.HANDY.01/PAH