FNUS73 KPAH 131309 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR TURPIN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 809 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE ABLE TO DROP TO NEAR 50 OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH NEAR IGNITION TIME. IF THESE CLOUDS MAKE IT TO THE BURN SITE...THEY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP. THEY COULD ALSO HOLD MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR A COUPLE HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM THIS EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WET. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 54. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL AROUND 4 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH AT IGNITION AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC MCR PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 49 50 51 52 53 53 53 52 RH..............55 53 52 50 49 48 48 49 50 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.7 9 12 13 14 15 15 15 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CWR.................37 PERCENT INCREASING TO 66 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 23 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 1 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............50 45 43 42 40 39 RH..............64 75 80 84 92 95 20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 4 NE 5 NE 5 E 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2400 2100 1900 1700 1500 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 16 NE 20 NE 23 NE 23 E 15 SE 5 CWR.............40 40 40 70 70 70 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................75 PERCENT DECREASING TO 63 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 13 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 24 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............38 42 46 48 RH..............95 80 71 65 20 FT WIND......E 7G20 E 8G20 E 7G10 E 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1800 2300 2700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 SE 13 NE 29 NE 29 CWR.............80 80 60 60 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110313.TURPI.01/PAH