FNUS74 KTSA 131742 FWSTSA FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BEAR HOLLOW...ARKANSAS NATURAL HERITAGE COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1250 CDT ON MARCH 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES VERY NEAR THE BURN SITE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING WINDS FROM THE EAST...WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE REGION. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2000-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 17 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE EAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM TEMP............57 57 57 57 57 55 DEWPT...........36 36 37 37 37 37 RH..............45 46 46 47 48 51 20FT WIND DIR...E E E E E E 20FT SPD (MPH)..9 8 7 6 6 6 20FT GUST(MPH)..15 15 10 10 10 10 CLOUDS (%)......50 63 88 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW MIXHGT/100(FT)..020 026 029 029 029 029 TR WIND DIR.....E E E E E E TR WIND SPD(MPH)10 13 14 15 16 17 STABILITY.......B B B B C C 1700FT MIX T (F)50 52 52 53 53 54 VENT/1000(M 3/S)003 005 006 006 006 007 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-600 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44. RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 16 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM TEMP............38 38 38 39 41 43 45 46 47 48 49 49 DEWPT...........37 37 37 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 34 34 RH..............95 96 96 91 83 77 71 67 63 60 58 56 20FT WIND DIR...NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N N 20FT SPD (MPH)..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20FT GUST(MPH).. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 CLOUDS (%)......100 100 100 100 100 100 100 86 86 86 86 86 WEATHER COV.....DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW MIXHGT/100(FT)..001 001 000 001 004 013 024 034 038 039 038 037 TR WIND DIR.....NE N N N N N NE NE NE N N N TR WIND SPD(MPH)6 7 9 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 STABILITY.......F F D D C C B B B B C C 1700FT MIX T (F)50 49 48 47 45 45 45 46 47 48 49 49 VENT/1000(M 3/S)000 000 000 000 001 002 005 007 008 009 009 009 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 11 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...HATFIELD REQUESTED BY...MARK MASTERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110313.BEARH.02/TSA