FNUS72 KTAE 151125 CCA
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR TITI SINK HOLE...FWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
555 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE DISPERSION FORECAST...

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850)942-8835.

.DISCUSSION...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SUFFICIENT DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST FLORIDA TO MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE MET IF
WINDS...DISPERSION OR THE ERC ARE HIGH ENOUGH. CONSIDERING THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DURING THIS TIME...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE FIRST TWO CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. SO IT WILL
COME DOWN TO THE ERC. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION..........MAX 69

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........42     42     42     42     43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     69     72     74     72
RH..............76     64     55     53     59
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 7    S 9    S 9    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     20     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 8 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION..........MIN 10

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........43     43     49     54     54
WEATHER COV.....                     AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP............67     62     59     58     57
RH..............72     86     95     98     99
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 5    SW 3   SW 2   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION..........MAX 61

$$
FORECASTER...MARK WOOL
REQUESTED BY...MORGAN WILBUR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110315.TITIS.01/TAE