FNUS73 KEAX 161324 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 9...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 824 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE RISK THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........19 16 13 9 16 23 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............44 51 56 60 64 67 68 68 68 RH..............75 65 59 56 48 44 42 42 44 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 14 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST. 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........30 34 37 48 55 61 68 68 69 69 69 70 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL TEMP............66 63 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 55 54 54 RH..............47 53 58 62 66 69 72 76 78 81 84 87 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........70 68 66 64 61 59 56 57 59 61 62 63 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 53 56 60 65 68 71 74 75 76 77 76 RH..............89 91 85 75 66 61 57 50 47 44 43 43 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110316.UNIT9.01/EAX