FNUS72 KMLB 161440
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR GARDNER MARSH...SFWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 EDT ON MARCH 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING...DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT PRE/POST FRONTAL WHICH MAKES DIRECTION A BIT TRICKY WITH
CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW HERE. AS A RESULT...DISPERSION INDICES ARE LOW.
HOWEVER...IT CAN BE EXPECTED THAT LIGHT MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY (SOUTHWEST-WEST) AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT SHOULD BE DELAYED   MID AFTERNOON (AT COAST) WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. AT PRESENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
WIND FORECAST FOR SEA BREEZE PASSAGE ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA.
IF IT WERE TO ARRIVE IT WOULD BE EARLY EVENING (WORST CASE SCENARIO).
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND PROFILE...AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BE
ENHANCED LOCALLY AROUND SMOLDERING BURNS.

FEEL FREE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THERE ARE ANY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST LATER IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............79  82  83  83  83  81  81  77  73  69  67  65
RH..............51  44  38  35  36  36  42  50  61  68  74  82
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NE  N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.                                5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL EARLY EVENING DECREASING TO 300-900
                    FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 9
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT LATE
                    IN THE NIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
LVORI...............9.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTH-NORTHEAST 5 TO 8
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....43.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...TERRY TORRENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110316.GARDN.01/MLB