FNUS75 KRIW 161246 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BRETECHE CREEK RX...BLM WOD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 646 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MARCH 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY... .DISCUSSION... MOIST STRONG WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE BURN SITE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THE BURN AREA...BUT RIDGE TOPS OVER 7500 FEET COULD SEE SOME SNOW. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE SITE TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND MIN HUMIDITY TODAY DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WESTERLY AND CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT WIDESPREAD. COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-48. MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH AROUND NOON. GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. LAL.................1 CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (120000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30. MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. LAL.................1 CHC OF WETTING RAIN.2. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL AFTER 8 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 26 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (97200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (18500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY NOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH. LAL.................1 CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 TO 29 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (35600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (171700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...MONONI REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110316.BRETE.01/RIW