FNUS72 KMHX 171416
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH STUMPY FIREBREAK BURN...USFWS ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH AND EAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......N 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING NE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............3      0      0      2
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................57     60     62     60
RH..................64     55     52     53
20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 7   NE 6   E 6    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............3      2      2      2      2      2
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................58     55     53     51     50     49
RH..................59     69     74     80     86     89
20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 6    SE 6   SE 6   S 7    SW 8   SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.....                            10
HAINES INDEX........5      4      4      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH BECOMING WEST 14 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............1      0      4      7      2      0
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................48     49     58     68     72     73
RH..................93     86     64     47     44     46
20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 10  SW 12  SW 13  SW 14  W 14   SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     20     20     15
HAINES INDEX........5      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...FREDERICK
REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110317.NORTH.02/MHX