FNUS73 KPAH 171832 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG SPRING RIDGE RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 132 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND STAY WITH US FOR THE EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER...WINDS...TEMPS AND RH VALUES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT AS THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION... THE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE CHALLENGING AS WELL DUE TO THE WAFFLING OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT PUSHES ON TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD OBVIOUSLY RAISE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH (210 DEGREES) AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS (210 DEGREES) 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. WINDS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET TO 10 MPH AND RAPIDLY LOWERING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 39 TO 45 MPH DECREASING TO 25 TO 33 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 6PM SKY (%).........PC WEATHER COV.....NONE WEATHER TYPE....NONE TEMP............76 RH..............42 20 FT WIND DIR..S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 20 FT WIND GUST.35 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW TRANSP WIND SPD.33 CWR.............0 HAINES INDEX....3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT BY EARLY EVENING...THEN 100-400 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 35 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 67 63 61 58 56 RH..............50 62 70 75 80 86 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 5 SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 800 100 100 100 100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 35 SW 35 SW 33 W 31 W 20 W 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 62 68 72 RH..............90 73 65 62 20 FT WIND......SW 2 S 5 S 6G10 S 9G15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1200 2000 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 S 7 SE 8 SE 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH REQUESTED BY...BOBBY BLOODWORTH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110317.BIGSP.01/PAH