FNUS75 KCYS 181318 CCA
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
710 AM MDT FRI MAR 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE AT THE BURN SITE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO
THE DAY...BUT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO 25 OR 30
PERCENT BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER MAY HELP LIMIT THE
DROP...BUT SHOULD NOT LIMIT HEATING MUCH. EXCELLENT RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE.
TOMORROW LOOKS WINDIER...WARMER...AND PERHAPS A TAD
DRIER...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH HUMIDITIES RECOVER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD-COVER SHOULD BE LESS ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP
OFFSET THE ANTICIPATED GREATER RECOVERIES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 22-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN SOUTH 15
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (19400-48600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT /111300 KNOT-FT/ IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH UNTIL
                    0300...THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (56600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (1100-1900 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 22-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (31500-58500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING
                    TO (132600-159200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...CLAY WESTBROOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110318.HORSE.01/CYS