FNUS74 KEWX 190128
FWSEWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MACALLISTER FIRE NO. 2...BASTROP COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
828 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2000 CDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND HIGH WINDS ALFOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 14 MPH BY 3 PM ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH BRIEF SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BELOW 10 MPH. BY NOON SUNDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN ON SATURDAY TO BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (15-17 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH). THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........95  91  91  91  80  80  80  50  50  50  40  40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............65  65  65  67  67  70  74  77  78  81  82  82
RH..............91  90  87  83  80  75  64  60  56  48  44  44
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   6   6   6   7   9   10  13  14  14  14
20 FT WIND GUST.                    10  15  20  20  20  25  25
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   4   5   5   7   9   10  11  11  11
EYE LVL WND GST.            5       10  15  20  20  20  25  25
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...22
REQUESTED BY...JIM ALLEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110318.MACAL.01/EWX