FNUS75 KGJT 172155
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOREFIELD PILE...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STALLED
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY WILL
FINALLY REACH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ENERGY
WILL HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.


.FRIDAY (BEFORE SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
                    NOON...AND INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS
                    POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-61%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11000 KNOT-FT OR LESS).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...JOANIE LAWRENCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110318.MOREF.01/GJT