FNUS73 KPAH 181608 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BASS PONDS...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1108 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE WARM WEATHER WILL COME A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT IS LAYING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE BURN AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT 5 TO 8 MPH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH...AND MAY INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OUT AS PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING BUT BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SINCE THE FRONT IS SO CLOSE BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AND THEN SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF YOUR AREA. IT THE FRONT STALLS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 1900-2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WINDS BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............65 67 66 65 64 62 61 60 RH..............65 63 60 60 59 58 58 56 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 8 13 17 21 22 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 56 54 52 50 48 RH..............60 63 80 83 86 89 20 FT WIND......N 7 N 5 N 3 N 3 N 3 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1100 900 900 800 800 TRANSPORT WIND..N 21 N 17 N 13 NE 12 NE 12 NE 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 52 56 58 RH..............86 74 64 59 20 FT WIND......NE 4G5 NE 7G10 E 6G10 E 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1500 2900 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 15 E 20 E 16 E 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110318.BASSP.01/PAH