FNUS73 KPAH 181210 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PISTOL BARREL...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 710 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST 5 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY MORNING... SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 2 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............65 68 70 72 74 74 75 74 72 RH..............68 61 55 51 46 46 43 43 46 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 11 12 13 12 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 2 3 7 12 16 18 20 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............69 60 56 54 50 48 RH..............49 62 69 74 83 89 20 FT WIND......NE 7 NE 6 NE 5 NE 5 NE 4 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1500 1400 1400 1300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 22 NE 21 NE 20 NE 18 NE 16 NE 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 53 57 59 RH..............86 71 67 64 20 FT WIND......NE 5 E 6G10 E 6G10 E 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1600 2600 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 16 E 17 E 15 E 13 CWR.............0 0 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PRESLEY REQUESTED BY...DAN DREES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110318.PISTO.01/PAH