FNUS73 KPAH 181551 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PISTOL BARREL...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1051 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE WARM WEATHER WILL COME A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 1030 AM... THERE IS A FRONT LAYING DIRECTLY ACROSS YOUR AREA. WHILE SKIES MAY BE SUNNY AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN LOOKS TO STAY WAY TO YOUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................73 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2000-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 2 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC PC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............64 65 66 66 65 64 63 62 62 RH..............73 72 71 65 63 61 60 60 56 20 FT WIND DIR..SW NE NE NE NE N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 6 8 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 7 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 2 3 7 12 16 18 21 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............62 60 56 54 50 48 RH..............52 51 69 74 83 89 20 FT WIND......N 7 NE 6 NE 5 NE 5 NE 4 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1500 1400 1400 1300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 22 NE 21 NE 20 NE 18 NE 16 NE 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 24 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 53 57 59 RH..............86 71 67 64 20 FT WIND......NE 5 E 6G10 E 6G10 E 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1600 2600 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 16 E 17 E 15 E 13 CWR.............0 0 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH REQUESTED BY...LIZ BARRERA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110318.PISTO.02/PAH