FNUS73 KPAH 181631
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGAR BAY RX...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON MARCH 18.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE WARM WEATHER WILL COME A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

WINDS WILL MAINLY SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE DAY AS THIS FRONT MEANDERS
JUST NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S STILL LOOK LIKELY WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AROUND 50 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST
                    5 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3500-4000
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............74  75  75  73  72  70
RH..............55  55  53  57  59  65
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   7   7   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.                    10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   W   W   W   W   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.9   8   8   9   10  13
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...KYLE VAREL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110318.SUGAR.01/PAH