FNUS73 KPAH 181255 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST TRACT RX...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 755 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 1700 FT AGL BY 10 AM...THEN 2000-3100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH 13 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............60 61 63 65 66 67 68 68 68 68 66 RH..............78 75 70 65 61 59 57 54 54 54 56 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW N N NW NW NW N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 3 3 2 2 6 9 13 16 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 57 54 52 50 49 RH..............60 75 80 83 86 86 20 FT WIND......N 6 N 5 N 4 N 4 N 4 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1700 1300 1200 1300 1000 900 TRANSPORT WIND..N 22 N 21 NE 17 NE 15 NE 13 NE 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 54 59 61 RH..............86 69 57 51 20 FT WIND......NE 4G5 NE 7G10 NE 6G10 NE 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1600 2800 3200 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 14 E 18 E 16 E 17 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PRESLEY REQUESTED BY...TYLER VAN ORMER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110318.WESTT.01/PAH