FNUS73 KICT 221037 FWSICT SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKMAN...KANSAS FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 537 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1315 CDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT ONCE! ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... .TODAY... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM MONTANA AND WYOMING TO ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTH WINDS TO GREATLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THEREBY ENABLING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SURGE NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 19 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8600-9600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 7500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26 TO 35 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 45 TO 49 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........78 76 72 68 65 61 59 54 45 36 26 17 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............61 62 64 67 70 72 74 75 77 77 77 76 RH..............89 87 80 72 65 58 53 47 41 36 33 31 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 14 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 18 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 30 35 35 40 40 40 40 40 35 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 5.4 7.5 9.6 8.6 7.5 MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW MIXNG WIND SPD..26 31 35 38 39 39 40 44 47 49 48 45 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 36 TO 41 MPH BECOMING WEST 18 TO 23 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........12 10 7 5 6 7 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 63 57 53 48 45 RH..............32 43 50 53 62 65 20 FT WIND......SW 14 SW 12 SW 10 W 7 W 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....6500 2300 300 300 300 300 MIXNG WIND......SW 41 SW 31 SW 23 W 20 W 18 W 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....6 5 5 5 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400-6500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 16 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 0 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........8 8 8 8 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 51 59 64 RH..............59 46 35 28 20 FT WIND......W 7G15 NW 11G25 NW 13G30 NW 13G30 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2500 5500 6500 MIXNG WIND......W 22 N 0 N 0 N 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 6 $$ FORECASTER...SCHMINKE REQUESTED BY...RODNEY REDINGER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110319.JACKM.01/ICT