FNUS73 KLSX 191528
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDIAN CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1028 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT LIES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH TURNING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 1600...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 59.
RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....EAST AT 6 TO 8 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WIND 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FEET AGL AT IGNITION...2400 FT AGL AT
                    MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (5593 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 10 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 33 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (17062 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...CARNEY
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110319.INDIA.01/LSX