FNUS75 KPUB 202011
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DECKER CIRCLE FIRE...PUEBLO COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

BURN AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SITE.  ACCORDING TO
MESONET SENSORS NEAR THE SITE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 5
10 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH AT TIMES.  THIS WOULD TILT THE
SMOKE PLUME TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...
WINDS HIGHER UP THE SLOPE...PROBABLY ABOVE 8000 TO 9000 FEET...
LIKELY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 30 MPH.  THIS WOULD TILT
THE SMOKE PLUME BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE IT HITS THE 8000 TO
9000 FOOT LEVEL.  EXPECT THIS GENERAL WIND PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD RETURN AT THE BURN SITE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...SO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT.  NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE TODAY.

FOR MONDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITE
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........VARIABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-63F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    AT TIMES...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20
                    MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ABOVE 8000 TO
                    9000 FEET.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........VARIABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........LIGHT OR EASTERLY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN BECOMING
                    WESTERLY 5-10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...S CARLTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110320.DECKE.01/PUB