FNUS75 KBOU 211334 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUT CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 735 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE TODAY...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE SHALLOW VALLEY INVERSIONS. SURROUNDING RAWS SITES HAVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS AND DRY AIR SHOULD SURFACE INTO THE VALLEYS BY MID MORNING...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WINDS ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. SURFACE WINDS AT THE FIRE MAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR JUST BECOME LIGHTER...BUT THAT FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE DRY AND BREEZY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62. MIN HUMIDITY........4-7%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 44-52 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7200-8000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36. MAX HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-51. MIN HUMIDITY........10-13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 10800-11800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TROUT CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/21-07 40 2 35 15 SW 14 1 372 SW 16 5387 P 03/21-08 40 2 38 13 SW 15 1 403 SW 18 6363 P 03/21-09 40 2 41 12 SW 16 25 4 1 SW58 433 SW 20 7339 P 03/21-10 40 2 45 10 SW 20 1 2682 SW 28 97126 G 03/21-11 40 2 50 8 SW 23 1 4931 SW 36 186912 E 03/21-12 58 0 54 7 SW 25 40 3 1 SW66 7179 SW 45 276699 E 03/21-13 58 0 56 7 SW 26 1 7440 SW 46 299181 E 03/21-14 58 0 57 6 SW 28 1 7700 SW 48 321663 E 03/21-15 58 0 58 6 SW 26 43 2 1 SW51 7961 SW 49 344145 E 03/21-16 58 0 57 7 SW 25 1 7690 SW 52 342706 E 03/21-17 58 0 56 9 SW 23 1 7419 SW 53 341266 E 03/21-18 64 12 55 11 SW 21 33 2 1 SW46 7149 SW 55 339826 E 03/21-19 64 12 52 15 SW 20 1 6395 SW 53 297326 E 03/21-20 64 12 49 19 SW 17 1 5642 SW 52 254826 E 03/21-21 64 12 46 24 SW 16 25 2 1 SW78 4888 SW 49 212326 E 03/21-22 64 12 44 27 SW 15 1 4905 SW 49 209275 E 03/21-23 64 12 43 27 SW 13 1 4921 SW 48 206223 E 03/22-00 39 12 42 28 SW 12 18 2 1 SW87 4938 SW 47 203172 E 03/22-01 39 12 41 30 SW 10 1 4851 SW 45 189764 E 03/22-02 39 12 39 32 SW 10 1 4764 SW 43 176355 E 03/22-03 39 12 38 34 SW 10 16 2 1 SW86 4677 SW 40 162947 E 03/22-04 39 12 36 35 SW 9 1 4717 SW 40 166738 E 03/22-05 39 12 35 35 W 9 1 4756 SW 41 170529 E 03/22-06 55 1 35 34 W 10 16 2 1 SW73 4796 SW 41 174320 E 03/22-07 55 1 35 32 W 13 1 4891 SW 41 173575 E 03/22-08 55 1 36 28 W 16 1 4985 W 40 172831 E 03/22-09 55 1 36 25 W 20 31 2 1 SW63 5080 W 39 172087 E 03/22-10 55 1 39 21 W 20 1 7102 W 32 191336 E 03/22-11 55 1 42 17 W 18 1 8742 W 29 209141 E 03/22-12 34 1 44 15 W 17 28 2 1 W53 10381 W 25 226946 E 03/22-13 34 1 47 14 W 18 1 11075 W 26 258963 E 03/22-14 34 1 48 13 W 20 1 11768 W 29 290981 E 03/22-15 34 1 49 13 W 21 33 2 1 W41 12462 W 30 322998 E 03/22-16 34 1 48 13 W 21 1 11744 W 31 311007 E 03/22-17 34 1 46 15 W 20 1 11026 W 31 299016 E 03/22-18 27 5 44 17 W 18 30 2 1 W46 10307 W 32 287025 E 03/22-19 27 5 40 20 W 20 1 8736 W 32 243831 E 03/22-20 27 5 37 23 W 21 1 7165 W 32 200636 E 03/22-21 27 5 35 25 W 21 33 2 1 W41 5594 W 32 157441 E 03/22-22 27 5 33 28 W 18 1 5045 W 30 135116 V 03/22-23 27 5 32 30 W 15 1 4497 W 29 112791 V 03/23-00 27 5 30 32 W 13 21 2 1 W38 3949 W 26 90466 G 03/23-01 27 5 29 33 W 14 1 3988 W 26 93661 G 03/23-02 27 5 28 35 W 15 1 4027 W 28 96856 G 03/23-03 27 5 28 36 W 17 28 2 1 W45 4065 W 29 100051 V 03/23-04 27 5 27 36 W 18 1 3966 W 29 100593 V 03/23-05 27 5 28 35 W 20 1 3866 W 30 101135 V 03/23-06 19 0 28 34 W 20 31 2 1 W46 3767 W 31 101677 V 03/23-07 19 0 28 33 W 18 1 4060 W 30 105299 V 03/23-08 19 0 29 31 W 17 1 4353 W 29 108922 V 03/23-09 19 0 33 26 W 16 25 2 1 W41 4646 W 28 112545 V 03/23-10 19 0 37 21 W 15 1 5935 W 28 140198 V 03/23-11 19 0 41 17 W 15 1 7224 W 26 167851 E 03/23-12 19 0 44 15 W 15 24 2 1 W55 8513 W 26 195504 E 03/23-13 19 0 47 13 W 16 1 8897 W 25 199367 E 03/23-14 19 0 48 12 W 16 1 9281 W 25 203230 E 03/23-15 19 0 49 12 W 16 25 2 1 W53 9664 W 24 207093 E 03/23-16 19 0 49 12 W 13 1 8963 W 21 165151 E 03/23-17 19 0 47 13 SW 8 1 8261 SW 16 123208 V 03/23-18 45 7 45 15 SW 5 5 2 1 W47 7560 SW 13 81265 G 03/23-19 45 7 41 17 SW 5 1 5224 SW 10 55258 F 03/23-20 45 7 38 20 SW 5 1 2888 SW 8 29251 P 03/23-21 45 7 36 22 SW 6 6 2 1 W49 553 S 7 3244 P 03/23-22 45 7 34 25 SW 6 1 487 S 7 2920 P 03/23-23 45 7 33 28 S 6 1 421 S 7 2595 P 03/24-00 45 7 31 32 S 6 6 2 1 SW46 356 S 7 2271 P 03/24-01 45 7 31 34 S 5 1 502 S 6 1971 P 03/24-02 45 7 29 38 S 3 1 649 S 3 1670 P 03/24-03 45 7 29 41 S 3 3 2 1 SW61 795 S 2 1370 P 03/24-04 45 7 29 44 SW 3 1 778 S 5 3042 P 03/24-05 45 7 29 45 SW 5 1 762 S 7 4713 P 03/24-06 36 3 29 45 SW 6 6 2 1 SW67 746 SW 10 6385 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...TOM BARTER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110321.TROUT.01/BOU