FNUS73 KEAX 211427 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR MINE CREEK...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 927 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING... AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TODAY...ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. WARM...HUMID...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THOUGH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT A MORE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRIER WEATHER AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MUCH COOLER AND PERIODIC WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH. TIME (CDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........49 47 45 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 77 78 77 RH..............61 56 52 53 20 FT WIND......S 15 S 17 S 17 S 15 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 20 HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 14 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........42 41 40 40 43 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 70 67 66 64 63 RH..............58 64 69 71 75 79 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26 TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........52 59 70 77 72 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............62 64 68 73 75 76 RH..............81 76 67 60 57 56 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 18 S 22 S 23 S 24 S 22 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 35 35 35 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BEUSTERIEN REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110321.MINEC.01/EAX