FNUS72 KMHX 192027 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR STUMPY POINT...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 427 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE ADI, LVORI AND CEILING HEIGHT FORECASTS. THE SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-55%. I CALCULATED A MAXIMUM MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 4000 FEET BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT MIXING HEIGHTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 5000 FEET. TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW 25 KNOTS. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).............82 87 66 57 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................47 51 61 66 RH..................93 85 59 54 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 2 SW 5 SW 13G19 SW 18G25 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110321.STUMP.01/MHX